September 2026, receipted.

Each result as it was recorded, in the experiment's own words. Negative and failed findings come first.

• E4-H1FAILSrecorded Sep 25

  Range-state conditioning (lead): COILED picks beat TRENDING-WEAK picks by ≥ 1.0 pt at 7d, COILED positive with win rate > 50%, n ≥ 100 per cell.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  COILED did not hold its own bar out of sample (−0.6020, 38.5%, raw), so no TRENDING-WEAK result could have passed the test. E3's range-state split is stamped as in-sample noise. COILED n 288; TRENDING-WEAK n 0; pooled n 438. Left out as no_data: 0. Graded more than 7 days 6 hours after the pick: 0. Recorded 2026-09-25 from read-files/E4-2-range-state-H1.sql (revision 3), printed as run.

• E4-H2NO SIGNALrecorded Sep 25

  Ranking-inversion persistence: long book minus short book at 7d, n ≥ 150 per side.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  Long book minus short book: −0.1807 pt, inside ±1.0. No cross-sectional signal. Longs −0.8604, shorts −0.6797, raw; n 219/219, pooled 438. Breakdown, not a verdict: core −0.2135, universe-x1 −0.1110. UVXY-class left out: 0. Left out as no_data: 0. Graded more than 7 days 6 hours after the pick: 0. Recorded 2026-09-25 from read-files/E4-1-ranking-H2.sql (revision 3), printed as run.

• E4-H3FAILSrecorded Sep 25

  Grade monotonicity: A ≥ B+ ≥ B at 7d (longs) with A−B separation ≥ 0.5 pt, n ≥ 30 per cell.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  The grades did not rank: A −2.1742, B+ −0.7766, B 0.3288. Grades are demoted to internal-only pending a recalibration charter, and the public grade-based win-rate context is removed. n 45/101/51; A minus B −2.5030 pt at 7 days. Caveat: the A cell is 98% core list and the B cell 71% universe-x1, so an A-versus-B gap also compares the two lists. Per-list breakdown: A / core −2.2959 (n 44), A / x1 3.1800 (n 1), B+ / core −0.7306 (n 90), B+ / x1 −1.1536 (n 11), B / core 1.4947 (n 15), B / x1 −0.1569 (n 36). Left out as no_data: 0. Graded more than 7 days 6 hours after the pick: 0. Recorded 2026-09-25 from read-files/E4-3-grades-H3.sql (revision 3), printed as run.

• B1-H1INDISTINGUISHABLErecorded Sep 25

  The live composite beats the equal-weight lane (B-EQ) by at least 0.5 pt at 7 days (raw convention, longs and shorts together), n ≥ 150 per lane.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  The live composite and B-EQ finished within 0.5 pt at 7 days (−0.4427; live −0.6269, B-EQ −0.1843). The composite did not beat this benchmark by the registered margin. The registered measure is direction-blind: symbol minus SPY with shorts not flipped, longs and shorts pooled. With every arm half short, an arm scores higher when the names it shorted rose, and symmetric skill cancels; the platform said so before the read (track-record API note, Aug 12: averaging raw relatives across both directions cancels to ~0 by construction). As-called, shorts flipped (not the registered measure): live +0.4531, B-EQ +0.5378, the same reading as the registered measure. With exactly 50% shorts, as-called equals long book minus pooled raw. Any follow-up pre-registers the as-called measure (B1-AS-CALLED-MEASURE-PREREGISTERED-2026-09-23.md). Shorts: live 50.0%, B-EQ 50.0%. Long book (the stamped secondary): live −0.1739, B-EQ +0.3535. Day 0 was Aug 24 as stamped; the lanes logged no rows that night, so live's 20 Aug 24 picks are left out to keep the arms matched. Left out as no_data: 0. Graded more than 7 days 6 hours after the pick: 1. Recorded 2026-09-25 from read-files/B1-benchmark-lanes.sql (revision 3), printed as run. Disclosed 2026-09-26 (Fable): from Aug 24 to the Sep 25 read, /api/read-stats returned each B1 lane's and the live lane's 7-day aggregate (scored n, share beating SPY, average excess, by direction) to any signed-in account, and the members' dual track-record page listed the newest twenty scored outcomes of any lane; the code cannot say whether anyone looked. The lane rows themselves were never on a public page. Both routes were narrowed on Sep 26. Disclosed 2026-09-27 (Fable): in the same weeks the members' dual track-record page's summary cards showed each lane's 7-day aggregate by type, a third way; narrowed on Sep 26 (70e4cd2).

• B1-H2INDISTINGUISHABLErecorded Sep 25

  The live composite beats the trend-and-momentum lane (B-TM) by at least 0.5 pt at 7 days, same terms.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  The live composite and B-TM finished within 0.5 pt at 7 days (+0.1603; live −0.6269, B-TM −0.7873). The composite did not beat this benchmark by the registered margin. The registered measure is direction-blind: symbol minus SPY with shorts not flipped, longs and shorts pooled. With every arm half short, an arm scores higher when the names it shorted rose, and symmetric skill cancels; the platform said so before the read (track-record API note, Aug 12: averaging raw relatives across both directions cancels to ~0 by construction). As-called, shorts flipped (not the registered measure): live +0.4531, B-TM −0.0363, the same reading as the registered measure. With exactly 50% shorts, as-called equals long book minus pooled raw. Any follow-up pre-registers the as-called measure (B1-AS-CALLED-MEASURE-PREREGISTERED-2026-09-23.md). Shorts: live 50.0%, B-TM 50.0%. Long book (the stamped secondary): live −0.1739, B-TM −0.8236. Day 0 was Aug 24 as stamped; the lanes logged no rows that night, so live's 20 Aug 24 picks are left out to keep the arms matched. Left out as no_data: 0. Graded more than 7 days 6 hours after the pick: 1. Recorded 2026-09-25 from read-files/B1-benchmark-lanes.sql (revision 3), printed as run. Disclosed 2026-09-26 (Fable): from Aug 24 to the Sep 25 read, /api/read-stats returned each B1 lane's and the live lane's 7-day aggregate (scored n, share beating SPY, average excess, by direction) to any signed-in account, and the members' dual track-record page listed the newest twenty scored outcomes of any lane; the code cannot say whether anyone looked. The lane rows themselves were never on a public page. Both routes were narrowed on Sep 26. Disclosed 2026-09-27 (Fable): in the same weeks the members' dual track-record page's summary cards showed each lane's 7-day aggregate by type, a third way; narrowed on Sep 26 (70e4cd2).

• B1-H3NEGATIVErecorded Sep 25

  The live composite beats the relative-strength lane (B-RS) by at least 0.5 pt at 7 days, same terms.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  B-RS beat the live composite by 1.6118 pt at 7 days (live −0.6269, B-RS +0.9848; raw convention, n 318/320). The registered measure is direction-blind: symbol minus SPY with shorts not flipped, longs and shorts pooled. With every arm half short, an arm scores higher when the names it shorted rose, and symmetric skill cancels; the platform said so before the read (track-record API note, Aug 12: averaging raw relatives across both directions cancels to ~0 by construction). As-called, shorts flipped (not the registered measure): live +0.4531, B-RS +0.8290, and on that measure the reading differs: the two arms finish within 0.5 pt. With exactly 50% shorts, as-called equals long book minus pooled raw. Any follow-up pre-registers the as-called measure (B1-AS-CALLED-MEASURE-PREREGISTERED-2026-09-23.md). Shorts: live 50.0%, B-RS 50.0%. Long book (the stamped secondary): live −0.1739, B-RS +1.8138. Day 0 was Aug 24 as stamped; the lanes logged no rows that night, so live's 20 Aug 24 picks are left out to keep the arms matched. Exploratory: one of 16 tests this year; the chance of a false positive rises with k. The only hypothesis designated PRIMARY before its data existed was E4-H1. Left out as no_data: 0. Graded more than 7 days 6 hours after the pick: 1. Recorded 2026-09-25 from read-files/B1-benchmark-lanes.sql (revision 3), printed as run. Disclosed 2026-09-26 (Fable): from Aug 24 to the Sep 25 read, /api/read-stats returned each B1 lane's and the live lane's 7-day aggregate (scored n, share beating SPY, average excess, by direction) to any signed-in account, and the members' dual track-record page listed the newest twenty scored outcomes of any lane; the code cannot say whether anyone looked. The lane rows themselves were never on a public page. Both routes were narrowed on Sep 26. Disclosed 2026-09-27 (Fable): in the same weeks the members' dual track-record page's summary cards showed each lane's 7-day aggregate by type, a third way; narrowed on Sep 26 (70e4cd2).

• A1-H1FAILSrecorded Sep 25

  Disagreement as a filter: scanner picks the second-opinion model endorses beat the ones it rejects by ≥ 1.0 pt at 7d, n ≥ 100 endorsed / 60 rejected.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  The picks the AI rejected did better than the ones it endorsed (1.0217 against 0.2992). Separation −0.7225 pt at 7 days, read as called; endorsed n 394, rejected n 94. Within-night separation −1.1460; within-direction −0.5876; raw sign −0.4561; rejected arm 57.4% short, endorsed 48.2% short. Per model, description only, never compared: claude-fable-5 endorsed 0.7377 (n 292), rejected 1.9026 (n 46); claude-opus-4-7 endorsed −0.9559 (n 102), rejected 0.1775 (n 48). Left out as no_data: 0. Graded more than 7 days 6 hours after the pick: 33. Opus answered on five nights (Aug 25–26, Sep 1–3) and Fable on twelve; no night had both. On Sep 19 an audit saw A1's overall outcome counts by side (hit rate near 50%) but not the endorsed/rejected split. Recorded 2026-09-25 from read-files/A1-1-disagreement-H1.sql (revision 3), printed as run.

• A1-H2FAILSrecorded Sep 25

  Calibration: Brier score < 0.25 and below the base rate; overconfidence gap ≤ 15 pts against the prior 53.5.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  Calibration failed: condition 1 missed, condition 2 missed. Brier 0.2506 against 0.25 and the base-rate 0.2488; band-by-band gap 2.74 pts. n 488, base rate 0.5348. Log loss 0.6943. Overall-average gap 2.74 pts (context; the Sep 19 audit had already seen the overall hit rate). Calibration curve, stated probability: share that came good (n): 40: 0.0% (3); 41: 100.0% (1); 42: 50.0% (6); 43: 50.0% (2); 44: 33.3% (9); 45: 57.1% (21); 46: 75.0% (20); 47: 48.0% (25); 48: 37.5% (8); 49: 30.8% (13); 50: 56.8% (74); 51: 58.5% (65); 52: 54.8% (84); 53: 60.8% (79); 54: 42.9% (56); 55: 40.0% (20); 56: 100.0% (1); 57: 0.0% (1). Per model, description only, never compared: claude-fable-5 Brier 0.2499, base rate 0.5799, band gap 6.71 pts (n 338); claude-opus-4-7 Brier 0.2521, base rate 0.4333, band gap 6.21 pts (n 150). Left out as no_data: 0. Graded more than 7 days 6 hours after the pick: 33. Opus answered on five nights (Aug 25–26, Sep 1–3) and Fable on twelve; no night had both. On Sep 19 an audit saw A1's overall outcome counts by side (hit rate near 50%) but not the endorsed/rejected split. Recorded 2026-09-25 from read-files/A1-2-calibration-H2.sql (revision 3), printed as run.

• WHIP-1FAILSrecorded Sep 25

  WHIP-1 — does a confirmation rule cut Rule A's false exits without costing more than it saves? Primary: A2 (two closes) against A0 (as built), on a discovery window to 2009 and a replication window from 2010.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  One historical run on 2026-09-25, published as run: SPY's closes, Rule A's own entry, five exit arms; the primary comparison A2 (two consecutive closes) against A0 (as built, one close), named before any data. Discovery 1993-11-11 to 2009-12-31: A0 38 of 45 exits whipsawed (84.4%), A2 26 of 32 (81.3%); maximum drawdown A0 24.8%, A2 21.8%. Replication 2010-01-01 to 2026-09-24: A0 24 of 32 exits whipsawed (75.0%), A2 18 of 26 (69.2%); maximum drawdown A0 18.3%, A2 18.4%. Secondary, exploratory: B2 clears the charter's bar — by §5 an E5 candidate, to be tested forward under its own charter. Not adopted. Exploratory: one of 19 tests this year; the chance of a false positive rises with k. The only hypothesis designated PRIMARY before its data existed was E4-H1. Recorded 2026-09-25 from docs/research/whip-1-result-2026-09-25.md (scripts/whip-1.mjs at commit 8f47f34), printed as run.

• E4-X2UNTESTABLErecorded Sep 25

  Day-5 time stop: picks unresolved at the day-5 close are marked EXPIRED-D5. Pass if their forward expectancy from day 5 is ≤ +0.10R, n ≥ 80.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  E4-X2 UNTESTABLE: its stamped measure, forward expectancy from day 5 to resolution or day 90 (pass at or below +0.10R), was defined on 2026-09-24 before any exit-rule number (R is the stop distance; forward R runs from the day-5 close to the walk's exit or the session-90 close), and the read of record needs every EXPIRED-D5 pick resolved or at session 90 on one fixed price history, so it runs on or after 2027-01-22. Also, 64 of the 154 EXPIRED-D5 picks were still open at the Sep 18 cutoff, 0 to 14 sessions after day 5. The measure's definition was written on the night of Sep 23, before any exit-rule number (E4-X2-DEFINITION-2026-09-24.md: R is the stop distance, from the day-5 close to the walk's exit or the session-90 close). The read of record runs on or after 2027-01-22, once every EXPIRED-D5 pick has resolved or reached session 90. Not blind: the E4 page and the ordinary stop/target diagnostic have shown this cohort's day-5 figures to signed-in accounts since launch night. Recorded 2026-09-25 from the /stop-target read of record (?read=e4), printed as run.

• E4-X1CONFIRMSrecorded Sep 25

  Day-1 kill rule: a pick whose first full trading day closes against entry is marked KILLED-D1. Pass if that cohort's eventual-stop rate exceeds its eventual-target rate by ≥ 15 pts, n ≥ 100.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  E4-X1 PASS: the stop rate beat the target rate by 15 points or more (one pass = a candidate finding, Article 2). Of the 239, 13.39% were still open at the Sep 18 cutoff (not yet resolved then, which is not the same as never resolving); they stay in the denominator, as in the design basis. KILLED-D1 239 (a first day not in the pick's favour, a flat close included, as the launch-night tracker counted it): stopped 64.44%, target 22.18%, still open at the Sep 18 cutoff 13.39%, gap of record 42.2594 pts. Counted strictly, without the 1 flat close, as description only: 238, gap 42.8571 pts. By side (description, not a verdict): longs 136 — stopped 75%, target 13.97%; shorts 103 — stopped 50.49%, target 33.01%. Read at Sep 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ET. Not blind: the E4 page has shown a live preview of this cohort since launch night. One pass is a candidate finding; nothing changes on the platform until it repeats on a fresh window. Exploratory: one of 19 tests this year; the chance of a false positive rises with k. The only hypothesis designated PRIMARY before its data existed was E4-H1. Recorded 2026-09-25 from the /stop-target read of record (?read=e4), printed as run.

Bookkeeping failures the platform found in its own record that month, each disclosed on the ledger with what was done about it.

• SEP-27DISCLOSEDdisclosed Sep 27

  The calibration record counted a call logged with no conviction score as a score of 0, from the panel's first day to Sep 27, 2026.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  Found by the G-R1 review on Sep 26 and corrected Sep 27 (846fca7): a missing, empty or blank score now counts as missing, and a real 0.0 stays a score. The buckets on /receipts, /track-record and each casefile's "This score's record" move by exactly the calls that had no score; nothing else changes. Disclosed here because the panel is public.

• SEP-29DISCLOSEDdisclosed Sep 30

  The casefile's earnings section measured each report's price reaction and the +5d and +30d drift from the day the fiscal quarter ended, about a month before the company reported, from May 8 to Sep 29, 2026.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  The EPS history feed dates each row by the quarter's last day, and the route measured from that day. Found Sep 29 by a read of the feed's dates; corrected the same day (e96856a): the report date now comes from the reports feed, each move runs from the close before the report date to the close of the session after it, and a quarter with no report date found shows no price figures. No stored record or experiment read these figures; the casefile displayed them.

• SEP-11DISCLOSEDdisclosed Sep 30

  The core scan logged 9 longs and 9 shorts on Sep 11, 2026, two short of its 10 a side, and no cause was recorded.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  Found by the nightly integrity check that night (graded FAIL) and written here on Sep 30 after a read-only audit of the record, which found it the one short night not yet disclosed. The 18 calls stand as that night's picks; the E4 exit read's fixed set (438 picks, counted on Sep 23 before the verdict) includes them as logged. The nightly guards that would now refuse a thin night, retry the names that did not score, and keep the same name off both sides came on Sep 22.

Hypotheses named before any of their data existed, and reads given a date, that month. The badge is the row's state today.

• E4-X2-READSCHEDULEDput on the ledger Sep 24

  E4-X2 read of record, on or after Jan 22, 2027.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  The measure was defined on Sep 24, 2026, before any exit data (parameters in lib/stop-target-walk.js); the Sep 25 read records E4-X2 as UNTESTABLE, and this later read is the one of record.

• E-A-READSCHEDULEDput on the ledger Sep 24

  E-A first read, Jan 11, 2027 (nightly shadow cross-sections; Day 0′ Sep 18, 2026).

  The note, as written on the ledger

  Registered Sep 14, 2026 under Instrumentation Amendment 3; a confirmatory second read follows. Dates are held in lib/experiments/registry.js and shown on /experiments.

• E-B-READSCHEDULEDput on the ledger Sep 24

  E-B read, Mar 11, 2027.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  Registered Sep 14, 2026; the read date was fixed at registration.

• E-C-READSCHEDULEDput on the ledger Sep 24

  E-C read, Sep 13, 2027.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  Registered Sep 14, 2026; the read date was fixed at registration.

• E-D-READSCHEDULEDput on the ledger Sep 25

  E-D first read, about Mar 8, 2027, after 120 nightly rows (the regime shadow; Day 0 Sep 15, 2026).

  The note, as written on the ledger

  Registered Sep 14, 2026. The read waits for 120 nightly rows: Mar 8 is trading day 120 from Day 0, so a missed night moves it later. A pass is not adopted on this read; the labels become a candidate gate input only after a second, confirmatory read. The date and the rule are held in lib/read-notify.js.

• E-A-CONFIRMSCHEDULEDput on the ledger Sep 25

  E-A confirmatory read, Apr 12, 2027 (a fresh window of picks, Dec 14, 2026 – Mar 11, 2027).

  The note, as written on the ledger

  Registered Sep 14, 2026 with the first read: the same test at a stricter bar, on picks the Jan 11 read never saw. Only a pass on both reads changes the ranking key. The date is held in lib/experiments/registry.js.

• E5-X1-H1SEALEDput on the ledger Sep 26

  Day-1 kill rule, forward: among core and universe-x1 picks logged Sep 29 – Oct 26, 2026, a pick whose first full trading day does not close in its favour (a flat close included) is marked KILLED-D1. Pass if that cohort's stop rate beats its target rate by ≥ 15 pts, n ≥ 100, open picks kept in the denominator; walked on daily prices up to Nov 2 by the same rules as E4-X1.

  The note, as written on the ledger

  PRIMARY for its read week, named at the stamp before any of its data existed. Exploratory in the year's count: it adds one test (k = 20 at the read if nothing is recorded first). Sealed: no person or agent computes a day-1 flag, a stop-or-target result or an R figure for these picks before Nov 4, 2026. The 7-day results against SPY stay public call by call on the track record, as for every call; that is a different measure. A secondary question (would selling at the day-1 close have done better, in R) is printed beside the verdict and can never be a finding on its own.

• E5-X1-READSCHEDULEDput on the ledger Sep 26

  E5-X1 read, Nov 4, 2026 (Day 0 Sep 29; last pick night Oct 26; prices up to Nov 2).

  The note, as written on the ledger

  Stamped Sep 26, 2026. The read opens at 00:00 New York time on Nov 4, owner-only, on the /stop-target read of record (?read=e5x1); the set is counted on Oct 27 (rows only, no prices, no outcomes). If the builds had not been live by the evening of Sep 28, Day 0 and every date would have moved by the charter's rule.

• E-D-CONFIRMSCHEDULEDput on the ledger Sep 26

  E-D confirmatory read, about Aug 27, 2027, after 120 further nightly rows (240 in all from Day 0, Sep 15, 2026).

  The note, as written on the ledger

  Registered Sep 14, 2026 with the first read: the same test on the regime shadow, and the only read that can make the HMM labels a candidate gate input — their 30-night separation must beat the live labels' with t ≥ 3. Aug 27 is trading day 240 from Day 0 on the shared market calendar (the charter estimated about Aug 26), so a missed night moves it later. The rule is held in lib/experiments/hmm-read.js.

30 corrections to 27 lessons, each with what the lesson said, what it says now, and why. The corrections ledger

The reads on the calendar now. A read that has happened leaves this list and appears on the card of the month it was recorded.

• E5-X1-READSCHEDULED

  E5-X1 read, Nov 4, 2026 (Day 0 Sep 29; last pick night Oct 26; prices up to Nov 2).

• G-R1-W1-READSCHEDULED

  G-R1 first read, Dec 9, 2026 (Day 0 Oct 5; window Oct 5 – Nov 30, 2026): do re-drawn score bands rank 7-day outcomes on long calls, on the core list and on universe-x1 separately?

• G-R1-W2-READSCHEDULED

  G-R1 second read, Feb 8, 2027 (window Dec 1, 2026 – Jan 28, 2027), only if the first read is recorded CONFIRMS.

• E5-RS-READSCHEDULED

  E5-RS read, Apr 13, 2027 (Day 0 Oct 12, 2026; night 120 Apr 5, 2027; rows still ungraded after Apr 20, 2027 left out and counted).

• C1-CHARTERSCHEDULED

  Universe-C1 (crypto), revised charter: to be stamped after the E5-X1 read on Nov 4, 2026.

• E4-X2-READSCHEDULED

  E4-X2 read of record, on or after Jan 22, 2027.

• E-A-READSCHEDULED

  E-A first read, Jan 11, 2027 (nightly shadow cross-sections; Day 0′ Sep 18, 2026).

• E-D-READSCHEDULED

  E-D first read, about Mar 8, 2027, after 120 nightly rows (the regime shadow; Day 0 Sep 15, 2026).

• E-B-READSCHEDULED

  E-B read, Mar 11, 2027.

• E-A-CONFIRMSCHEDULED

  E-A confirmatory read, Apr 12, 2027 (a fresh window of picks, Dec 14, 2026 – Mar 11, 2027).

• E-D-CONFIRMSCHEDULED

  E-D confirmatory read, about Aug 27, 2027, after 120 further nightly rows (240 in all from Day 0, Sep 15, 2026).

• E-C-READSCHEDULED

  E-C read, Sep 13, 2027.